Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:05:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b41…23d9 crypto 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$20 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%54W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$121
14 days−$45
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$9
sports 20% −$18
crypto 13% +$16
world 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -50.1% -54.8% 26% 26% -29.2%
≤30d 56 -1.9% -11.3% 29% 29% -15.0%
≤90d 180 +5.9% -4.2% 30% 30% -9.9%
all 180 +5.9% -4.2% 30% 30% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 30% -9.9%
10% -13.3% 29% -18.5%
15% -21.7% 28% -26.4%
20% -29.4% 25% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses54 / 126
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions9
Markets (closed)180 / 189
History coverage54d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$31 +152%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$52 +128%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$9 -59%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $30 +$25 +81%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$6 -71%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 +$3 +42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $59 +$35 +60%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $59 +$39 +67%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$50 +1036%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$21 +223%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$10 +139%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$21 +487%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 +$43 +596%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 −$3 -37%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 8h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 22h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $41 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $40 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 96¢ $55 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 3d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 7¢ $2 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $94 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.09 · official $106.09 (match) · 413 history records