Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b3d…56f9 sports 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%10W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$4
politics 21% −$4
other 19% −$3
crypto 8% −$1
culture 7% −$1
economics 7% −$1
world 5% −$1
tech 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 190 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses10 / 180
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)190 / 191
History coverage170d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 94¢ 93¢ $45 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 08 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $46 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $98 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $134 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $152 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $158 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $104 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $238 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $128 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $214 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $97 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $109 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 20 $106 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $203 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $45 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $43 7d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $43 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $48 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $48 15d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $47 23d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $47 23d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $36 36d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $36 36d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $47 120d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $47 120d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $46 120d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $46 120d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 120d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 120d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $42 121d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $42 121d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $45 121d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 91¢ $45 121d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 121d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 121d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $44 121d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $44 121d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 121d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 121d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 121d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 121d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 121d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $48 121d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $48 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.73 · official $44.73 (match) · 727 history records