Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b37…3d55 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-26%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day105.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -31.6% -38.2% 50% 12% -48.1%
≤30d 8 -31.6% -38.2% 50% 12% -48.1%
≤90d 8 -31.6% -38.2% 50% 12% -48.1%
all 8 -31.6% -38.2% 50% 12% -48.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.2% 12% -48.1%
10% ← realistic here -44.1% 12% -53.1%
15% -49.5% 12% -57.6%
20% -54.4% 0% -61.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$19 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day105.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$10 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$27 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$21 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records