Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b32…f699 other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%90W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$7
crypto 18% +$3
economics 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 20 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 93 -2.1% -11.4% 97% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 2% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses90 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage474d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $4 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 19 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 09 $59 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 29 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 23 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 17 $56 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 11 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 07 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? Mar 02 $55 $0 +1%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026? Feb 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of January 202 Feb 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026? Jan 31 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jan 10 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 23? Dec 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 30 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 3? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or higher on Nov Dec 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Dec 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $240 in November? Dec 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Dec 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on November 12? Nov 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 23 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $60 15d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 21d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 23d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $2 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 36d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 36d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 48d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 50d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 58d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 63d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 68d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 75d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $54 79d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 85d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $2 85d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $2 85d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 91d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 97d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 101d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 107d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 122d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 132d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 132d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $49 136d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 17 to January 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 149d
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of January 202 BUY No 99¢ $1 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.15 · official $60.03 (match) · 186 history records