Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b2f…3531 sports 210 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,721 (-3%) realized −$6,721 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%114W / 96L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$946per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1,304est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,036
7 days+$3,114
14 days+$646
30 days−$1,112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,801
other 0% −$489
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +8.2% -2.1% 48% 44% +2.0%
≤30d 60 +4.5% -5.4% 47% 45% -10.8%
≤90d 88 +3.2% -6.6% 48% 45% -21.6%
all 210 +2.6% -7.1% 54% 52% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 52% -11.9%
10% -16.0% 45% -20.4%
15% -24.1% 40% -28.1%
20% -31.6% 34% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,093) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$557 vs −$717 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,721
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses114 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,304
Open positions0
Markets (closed)210 / 210
History coverage175d
Avg bet$946
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 210 Trades
no open positions (67 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $706 +$2,294 +325%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,513 +$1,694 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $736 +$15 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $315 −$309 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $492 −$479 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $226 −$222 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $195 −$147 -76%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $279 +$221 +79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $693 +$158 +23%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $4,001 +$685 +17%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $475 +$1,224 +258%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $370 −$59 -16%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,843 +$283 +15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $367 +$633 +172%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $277 −$270 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,990 +$2,010 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $819 −$800 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $37 +$48 +132%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $332 −$325 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,642 −$379 -10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $772 −$757 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,747 −$1,715 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $509 +$711 +140%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $741 +$4,576 +618%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,179 +$484 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $229 −$201 -88%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $6 +$7 +114%
1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 11 $1,394 +$526 +38%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 11 $359 +$180 +50%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $43 +$37 +85%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7,520 −$7,487 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $244 −$240 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $514 +$379 +74%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1,186 −$570 -48%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $507 +$387 +76%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $542 −$535 -99%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $643 +$678 +106%
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $1,432 +$1,568 +109%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $858 −$858 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 04 $1,718 +$749 +44%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty: O/U 173.5 Jun 03 $358 −$353 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) May 29 $25,176 −$1,313 -5%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 29 $397 −$378 -95%
Will Bud Cauley finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Charles Schwab Challe May 26 $442 −$430 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula May 26 $6 −$6 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 May 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $161 −$159 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $706 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2,513 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $315 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $736 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1,180 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $5 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $180 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $307 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 40¢ $226 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 15¢ $42 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $195 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 81¢ $693 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $586 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $3,415 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $279 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $115 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $54 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $306 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 11¢ $220 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No $311 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No $370 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over $36 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $1,807 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $277 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $409 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $409 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,990 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $367 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $7 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $325 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 885 history records