Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7b2e…2071
crypto · 162 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses127 / 27
Open positions8
Markets (closed)154 / 162
History coverage52d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 8 History 154 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? No 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? No 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? No 87¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $4 −$2 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $5 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $6 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $4 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $3 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $4 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $5 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 25 $1 $0 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 24 $3 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% −$2
crypto 42% +$2
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 BUY No 100¢ $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 32h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 32h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $0 33h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 5d
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nation BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 9d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 10d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 10d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 11d
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, BUY No 100¢ $2 12d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 12d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 12d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.6% -6.3% 89% 11% -4.4%
≤30d 24 -1.0% -10.4% 92% 12% -9.3%
≤90d 154 -2.7% -12.0% 82% 29% -9.4%
all 154 -2.7% -12.0% 82% 29% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 29% -9.4%
10% -20.4% 17% -18.1%
15% -28.1% 10% -26.0%
20% -35.1% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.06 · official $11.06 (match) · 324 history records