Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

7B 0x7b28…b6be sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$734 (+28%) realized +$838 · open −$104

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown21%max

Avg bet$645per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$1,717now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-8.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+0.9%	-8.7%	67%	67%	+23.6%
≤30d	3	+0.9%	-8.7%	67%	67%	+23.6%
≤90d	3	+0.9%	-8.7%	67%	67%	+23.6%
all	3	+0.9%	-8.7%	67%	67%	+23.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.7%	67%	+23.6%
10%	-17.5%	67%	+11.8%
15%	-25.4%	67%	+1.0%
20%	-32.8%	33%	-8.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$485 vs −$200 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.85 per $1 lost it wins $4.85

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,717

Realized+$838

Unrealized−$104

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$645

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown21%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Over	51¢	39¢	$441	$337	−$104 (-24%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$206	−$200	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$901	+$497	+55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,020	+$473	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$452	39m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	41¢	$206	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$901	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$1,020	12h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,716.92 · official $1,738.54 · 5 history records