Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7B 0x7b24…e303 sports 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$327 (-11%) realized −$329 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%40W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$565
14 days−$81
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$17
sports 35% −$348
politics 1% −$9
world 0% +$15
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +66.0% +50.2% 100% 100% +49.2%
≤30d 9 +1.6% -8.1% 67% 67% -14.1%
≤90d 13 -4.9% -14.0% 62% 62% -13.9%
all 76 -8.4% -17.1% 53% 53% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 53% -20.6%
10% -25.1% 51% -28.2%
15% -32.3% 47% -35.2%
20% -38.9% 39% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$35 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized−$329
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses40 / 36
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage583d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $242 $244 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $173 +$148 +86%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $267 +$195 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $264 +$126 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $167 +$95 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $221 −$219 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $129 −$127 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $309 −$303 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 11 $13 +$3 +21%
Magic vs. Pistons May 30 $9 +$3 +29%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 13 $13 +$9 +70%
Hawks vs. Celtics Apr 01 $9 +$4 +52%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Mar 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bruins vs. Devils Mar 19 $14 +$12 +89%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Pacers vs. Raptors Feb 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Feb 08 $46 +$50 +108%
Hornets vs. Nuggets Jan 19 $26 +$24 +92%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $104 −$52 -50%
Capitals vs. Predators Jan 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Mavericks vs. Jazz Jan 08 $38 −$38 -100%
Kings vs. Utah Jan 08 $33 +$34 +104%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03? Dec 08 $18 +$8 +43%
76ers vs. Nets Nov 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Nuggets vs. Rockets Nov 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Pacers vs. Suns Nov 21 $20 +$12 +59%
Celtics vs. Magic Nov 13 $24 +$17 +72%
Sabres vs. Bruins Oct 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22? Oct 30 $11 +$6 +52%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Oct 30 $11 +$10 +89%
Rutgers vs. Washington Oct 14 $9 +$3 +28%
Commanders vs. Falcons Sep 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Sep 28 $8 +$7 +79%
Falcons vs. Panthers Sep 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bears vs. Lions Sep 21 $14 +$5 +39%
Chiefs vs. Chargers Sep 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pafos FC win on 2025-08-26? Aug 31 $12 +$4 +37%
Mariners vs. Phillies Aug 26 $9 +$7 +79%
Orioles vs. Astros Aug 20 $8 +$7 +79%
White Sox vs. Mariners Aug 20 $12 +$5 +41%
Rays vs. Yankees Aug 07 $12 +$7 +56%
Astros vs. Mariners Jul 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Magic Jul 20 $14 +$4 +30%
Orioles vs. Yankees Jul 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Twins vs. Marlins Jul 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Rays vs. Tigers Jul 13 $8 +$7 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $244 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $173 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $267 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $264 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $167 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $221 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $129 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $309 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $13 14d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 58¢ $6 34d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 77¢ $9 52d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 56¢ $6 69d
Hawks vs. Magic BUY Hawks 58¢ $13 80d
Hawks vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 66¢ $9 86d
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes BUY Ohio State Buckeyes 58¢ $26 94d
Bruins vs. Devils BUY Devils 53¢ $14 97d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY Yes 73¢ $33 111d
Will Torino FC win on 2026-03-01? BUY No 68¢ $51 111d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17? BUY No 71¢ $65 124d
Pacers vs. Raptors BUY Pacers 24¢ $31 133d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? BUY No 48¢ $46 144d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $52 152d
Hornets vs. Nuggets BUY Hornets 52¢ $26 153d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $104 153d
Capitals vs. Predators BUY Capitals 57¢ $25 160d
Mavericks vs. Jazz BUY Mavericks 68¢ $38 163d
Kings vs. Utah BUY Kings 49¢ $33 194d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 200d
76ers vs. Nets BUY Nets 29¢ $14 205d
Nuggets vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 56¢ $23 211d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.91 · official $243.94 (match) · 137 history records