Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:41:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7B 0x7b23…e086 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,645 (+14%) realized +$1,662 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%29W / 39L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$257
7 days−$2,389
14 days−$2,389
30 days−$1,301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -73.3% -75.8% 16% 16% -67.1%
≤30d 45 -67.0% -70.1% 20% 20% -32.1%
≤90d 45 -67.0% -70.1% 20% 20% -32.1%
all 68 +3.9% -6.0% 43% 43% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 43% +0.9%
10% -15.0% 43% -8.7%
15% -23.2% 38% -17.6%
20% -30.7% 35% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +79% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$85 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$1,662
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses29 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage154d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET Up 59¢ 56¢ $270 $253 −$17 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET Jun 28 $46 −$30 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET Jun 28 $56 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1PM ET Jun 27 $124 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET Jun 27 $94 −$91 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET Jun 27 $37 −$36 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$26 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $455 −$442 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $148 −$142 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $185 +$139 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $77 −$15 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $496 +$333 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $182 −$180 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $63 −$62 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 3PM ET Jun 22 $306 −$306 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9PM ET Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1PM ET Jun 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2PM ET Jun 22 $170 −$170 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 2PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $800 −$800 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $135 −$135 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$19 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10PM ET Jun 02 $300 +$161 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET Jun 02 $1,132 +$927 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 7PM ET Mar 17 $1,589 −$18 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 6PM ET Mar 16 $1,209 +$839 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 04 $1 +$17 +1881%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 3PM ET Feb 25 $52 +$28 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 2PM ET Feb 25 $75 +$20 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $72 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $14 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $20 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $46 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.68 · official $252.68 (match) · 546 history records