Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7B 0x7b21…cae2 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$6 (-4%) realized −$4 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip

Net edge-57%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day3.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-55.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-50.8%	-55.5%	0%	0%	-40.2%
≤30d	2	-50.8%	-55.5%	0%	0%	-40.2%
≤90d	2	-50.8%	-55.5%	0%	0%	-40.2%
all	2	-50.8%	-55.5%	0%	0%	-40.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-55.5%	0%	-40.2%
10%	-59.8%	0%	-46.0%
15%	-63.7%	0%	-51.2%
20%	-67.2%	0%	-56.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -34% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -51% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$3 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$127

Realized−$4

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)2 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day3.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	91¢	90¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$14	$14	+$0 (+1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	71¢	69¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	11¢	8¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-23%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Jun 21	$10	$0	-2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$100	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$14	25h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	SELL Yes	91¢	$10	25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	25h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	BUY Yes	92¢	$10	25h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	71¢	$10	25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.21 · official $127.21 (match) · 7 history records