Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b20…2cbf crypto 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$717 (+14%) realized +$756 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%82W / 125L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$321
14 days+$304
30 days+$468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$358
other 13% −$123
sports 6% +$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 +1.3% -8.4% 42% 41% -2.3%
≤30d 207 +14.9% +3.9% 40% 39% -2.2%
≤90d 207 +14.9% +3.9% 40% 39% -2.2%
all 207 +14.9% +3.9% 40% 39% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.9% 39% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -6.0% 38% -11.6%
15% -15.1% 36% -20.1%
20% -23.4% 32% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$19 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$756
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses82 / 125
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)207 / 209
History coverage16d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 30¢ $28 $18 −$10 (-36%)
Austria leading at halftime? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $91 +$72 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$44 +106%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$10 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $38 −$37 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $47 −$45 -96%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$188 +186%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$12 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$72 +116%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$31 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$6 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$19 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$32 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $72 +$37 +51%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$8 +39%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$6 +16%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $106 −$103 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$32 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$34 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$139 +272%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 −$78 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $28 +$21 +75%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$23 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $60 −$53 -88%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$5 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $77 +$6 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$32 +63%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$26 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$16 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $21 +$74 +359%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$10 +87%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$40 +189%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $35 −$34 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$24 +2243%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $28 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $29 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $20 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 39h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $290 40h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 40h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 40h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.92 · official $17.92 (match) · 717 history records