Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
7B 0x7b20…eb02 weather 593 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,331 (+16%) realized +$1,351 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%273W / 318L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$207
14 days+$388
30 days+$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$1,140
other 2% +$10
crypto 0% −$16
sports 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +86.8% +69.1% 50% 44% +19.6%
≤30d 198 +43.4% +29.7% 45% 37% +6.1%
≤90d 591 +30.9% +18.4% 46% 40% +2.8%
all 591 +30.9% +18.4% 46% 40% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.4% 40% +2.8%
10% +7.1% 35% -7.1%
15% -3.2% 32% -16.0%
20% -12.7% 29% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$1,351
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses273 / 318
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)591 / 593
History coverage87d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 591 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$5 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$15 +104%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $7 +$28 +378%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$5 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 +$27 +81%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$26 +185%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 +$7 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $0 +$2 +600%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 +$46 +1150%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$19 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $54 +$12 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$9 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$6 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$12 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $62 +$33 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 9 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 9? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$44 +3604%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$32 +535%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 +$8 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $18 −$16 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $17 −$15 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $9 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $33 +$44 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 53m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 53m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 56¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 2¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 8¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 96¢ $21 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 96¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $13 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 33h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 31¢ $4 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June SELL Yes 10¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June BUY Yes 6¢ $3 36h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 20¢ $7 38h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 45¢ $17 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 67¢ $10 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 67¢ $24 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $35 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.70 · official $17.70 (match) · 1833 history records