Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b20…9e8e sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-3%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$1,918
sports 16% +$377
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -13.0% -21.2% 40% 20% -65.5%
≤30d 6 -17.3% -25.2% 33% 17% -65.4%
≤90d 6 -17.3% -25.2% 33% 17% -65.4%
all 6 -17.3% -25.2% 33% 17% -65.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 17% -65.4%
10% -32.3% 17% -68.7%
15% -38.9% 17% -71.7%
20% -44.9% 17% -74.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$202 vs −$486 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage10d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $349 +$392 +112%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,909 −$1,844 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $112 +$11 +10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $195 −$85 -44%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $56 −$7 -12%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $21 −$8 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $226 47m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $74 49m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $295 52m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $63 54m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $83 56m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $62 58m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $131 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $34 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $13 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $48 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $48 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $77 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $49 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $80 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $37 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $52 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $39 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $43 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records