Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7B 0x7b1f…ca3f world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 34L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$6
politics 27% $0
other 15% −$1
sports 11% $0
culture 1% +$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.3% -4.7% 50% 25% -8.1%
≤30d 16 +45.2% +31.3% 38% 19% -8.5%
≤90d 16 +45.2% +31.3% 38% 19% -8.5%
all 49 +14.6% +3.7% 31% 8% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 8% -9.0%
10% -6.3% 6% -17.7%
15% -15.3% 2% -25.7%
20% -23.6% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage318d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 42¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $53 +$3 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $88 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$2 -19%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $9 +$2 +20%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 23 $58 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 23 $68 $0 -0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 23 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 07 $0 $0 -38%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 07 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 07 $7 +$2 +30%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 04 $58 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 04 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $40 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $44 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $41 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $13 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $13 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $39 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $44 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $18 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $34 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.14 · official $40.12 (match) · 157 history records