Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b18…89ab crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$67 (+19%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day94.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$67
14 days+$67
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 71% 53% +9.5%
≤30d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 71% 53% +9.5%
≤90d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 71% 53% +9.5%
all 17 +0.1% -9.4% 71% 53% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 53% +9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 35% -1.0%
15% -26.0% 29% -10.5%
20% -33.2% 18% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.99 per $1 lost it wins $4.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day94.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$21 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $74 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $12 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $41 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $29 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $8 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records