Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b18…577e sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (110 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized −$24 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day110.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$67
sports 49% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (110 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -12.7% -21.0% 42% 25% -0.8%
≤30d 12 -12.7% -21.0% 42% 25% -0.8%
≤90d 12 -12.7% -21.0% 42% 25% -0.8%
all 12 -12.7% -21.0% 42% 25% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 25% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 8% -10.3%
15% -35.5% 8% -19.0%
20% -41.8% 8% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$3 · ×4.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.54 per $1 lost it wins $3.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day110.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 99¢ 90¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 1¢ 10¢ $3 $26 +$24 (+854%)
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? No 2¢ 6¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+200%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $102 −$5 -5%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $225 +$11 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $281 +$27 +10%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $232 +$44 +19%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $0 $0 -97%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $14 −$14 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $11 −$1 -13%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $25 +$3 +12%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 0m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 0m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 0m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 0m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 0m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 0m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 0m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 0m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 0m
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? BUY No 2¢ $2 2m
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? SELL No 1¢ $1 4m
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 4m
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 4m
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 1¢ $1 4m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $0 19m
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $6 27m
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 53¢ $162 28m
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $24 28m
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $24 28m
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $24 28m
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $24 28m
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $24 28m
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $25 28m
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $25 29m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 46¢ $67 32m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 45¢ $10 32m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 47¢ $10 32m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 47¢ $6 32m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 47¢ $4 33m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $6 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.39 · official $124.39 (match) · 111 history records