Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:48:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7B 0x7b17…25ae other 28 markets active 3h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,893 (-14%) realized −$1,893 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate70%19W / 8L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$490per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$73
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 31% +$156
other 29% −$704
crypto 15% +$97
politics 14% −$1,096
world 7% −$453
sports 3% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +6.4% -3.7% 67% 67% -5.0%
≤90d 11 -6.3% -15.2% 64% 55% -39.0%
all 27 -11.2% -19.6% 70% 30% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 30% -22.1%
10% -27.3% 22% -29.5%
15% -34.3% 22% -36.3%
20% -40.8% 15% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,030) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$319 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$1,893
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses19 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage236d
Avg bet$490
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $74 −$73 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $45 +$25 +55%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $91 +$59 +65%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $68 −$67 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $186 +$77 +42%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $4 +$3 +59%
Wizards vs. Nets Apr 13 $15 +$9 +62%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 05 $512 −$512 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Apr 05 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $532 +$19 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $479 +$59 +12%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Mar 07 $467 +$13 +3%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 14 $640 −$640 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 14 $1,155 −$14 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $1,092 +$62 +6%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 15 $1,075 +$17 +2%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 07 $1,030 +$45 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $947 +$82 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 05 $862 +$85 +10%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 20 $808 +$54 +7%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 03 $1,153 −$1,153 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Nov 03 $1,187 +$12 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $40 +$1 +1%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $41 +$5 +12%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $1,075 +$25 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $58 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $74 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $45 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $91 25d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 65¢ $68 31d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 70¢ $186 33d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $60 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY No 95¢ $512 77d
Wizards vs. Nets BUY Nets 61¢ $15 78d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $532 98d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $4 98d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 63¢ $4 98d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 89¢ $479 107d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 97¢ $467 125d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $11 127d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $1 127d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $1 127d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $1 127d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $1 127d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $5 127d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $5 127d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $1 127d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $2 127d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $1 127d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $0 127d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $1 127d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes $2 127d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No $66 127d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No $11 127d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No $1 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.63 · official $56.63 (match) · 95 history records