Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b17…51b1 other 259 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20,847 (-28%) realized −$19,933 · open −$914
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%32W / 149L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$249est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$11,357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8,008
14 days+$7,844
30 days−$26,658
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$2,183
sports 13% +$2,028
politics 9% −$4,910
world 9% −$6,359
culture 0% −$243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +950.0% +850.0% 50% 50% +1404.0%
≤30d 86 -45.3% -50.5% 12% 12% -76.2%
≤90d 181 -15.8% -23.8% 18% 17% -35.3%
all 181 -15.8% -23.8% 18% 17% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 17% -35.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 15% -41.5%
15% -37.7% 12% -47.2%
20% -43.8% 11% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,296 vs −$351 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$11,357
Realized−$19,933
Unrealized−$914
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses32 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$249
Open positions79
Markets (closed)181 / 259
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$292
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 79 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $2,917 $2,862 −$54 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 25¢ $1,396 $1,292 −$103 (-7%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $782 $1,186 +$404 (+52%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? No 18¢ 28¢ $411 $610 +$200 (+49%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 76¢ $445 $416 −$30 (-7%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 79¢ 80¢ $368 $376 +$7 (+2%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $357 $361 +$4 (+1%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $294 $299 +$5 (+2%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 4¢ 11¢ $92 $234 +$142 (+154%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $202 $234 +$32 (+16%)
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $277 $203 −$74 (-27%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 12¢ $87 $195 +$108 (+123%)
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $154 $167 +$13 (+9%)
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $167 $167 −$1 (-0%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? No 65¢ 81¢ $131 $164 +$33 (+25%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $129 $153 +$24 (+18%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $126 $116 −$11 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $126 $115 −$11 (-9%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $105 $115 +$10 (+10%)
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 70¢ 69¢ $114 $114 −$0 (-0%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $114 $114 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $457 $83 −$374 (-82%)
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-1%)
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $81 $73 −$8 (-10%)
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $75 $71 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $296 +$8,086 +2729%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $80 −$78 -98%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $232 −$232 -100%
Will "Schmigadoon!" win Best Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $62 +$36 +58%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 08 $18 +$87 +476%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Adam Wharton be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 02 $239 +$361 +151%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $446 +$2,173 +487%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 30 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 30 $114 −$114 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 25 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 25 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 25 $2,229 −$2,229 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 25 $770 −$770 -100%
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leagu May 25 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Kobbie Mainoo be included in England's official 2026 World Cup sq May 25 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 25 $272 −$272 -100%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 25 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 25 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 25 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 25 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 25 $401 −$401 -100%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 25 $301 −$301 -100%
Will Denmark be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 25 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 25 $1,084 −$1,084 -100%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 25 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 25 $61 −$61 -100%
Will France win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 25 $397 −$397 -100%
Will Italy win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 25 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Denmark be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 25 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 25 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 25 $514 −$514 -100%
Will Sweden be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 25 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 25 $694 −$694 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 3m
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY No 71¢ $62 8m
Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 5¢ $43 54m
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY No 68¢ $54 1h
Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $47 1h
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $36 1h
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $81 1h
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 1h
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 1h
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $67 1h
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $83 1h
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 26¢ $24 1h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 1h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $81 1h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 1h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 3¢ $36 1h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 1h
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 1h
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 1h
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 12h
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $33 21h
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $58 21h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $19 21h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $36 42h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $217 42h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $217 42h
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 8¢ $48 46h
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,357.44 · official $11,359.58 (match) · 3500 history records