Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b16…4ae8 crypto 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$279 (-2%) realized +$20 · open −$299
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 35L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days−$35
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$223
other 6% −$277
sports 0% +$9
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -19.3% -27.0% 40% 40% -4.7%
≤30d 23 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 39% -14.5%
≤90d 61 -8.4% -17.1% 43% 36% -10.7%
all 61 -8.4% -17.1% 43% 36% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 36% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 30% -19.2%
15% -32.3% 25% -27.0%
20% -39.0% 18% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$78 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$546
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$299
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions49
Markets (closed)61 / 110
History coverage87d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $31 +$8 (+37%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $30 −$6 (-17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+32%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $17 $28 +$11 (+66%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+23%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $16 −$7 (-30%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $34 $14 −$20 (-59%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+50%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $26 $13 −$13 (-51%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $29 $12 −$17 (-58%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+14%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-32%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $34 $10 −$24 (-70%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $27 −$9 -35%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9 +$4 +46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 10 $74 −$14 -19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 08 $63 −$33 -52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $34 −$33 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $82 −$8 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $13 +$26 +193%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $39 +$11 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $60 +$13 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? May 31 $51 +$44 +87%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 25-31? May 28 $67 +$49 +73%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 25 $209 +$160 +77%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 May 18-24? May 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $339 +$14 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 20 $59 −$5 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17? May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? May 15 $92 +$18 +19%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 15 $140 +$11 +8%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 11 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $8 +$32 +388%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $461 −$388 -84%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 02 $147 −$24 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3? May 01 $233 −$28 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $391 −$182 -47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 29 $518 +$262 +51%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? Apr 28 $54 −$32 -58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 20-26? Apr 28 $692 −$599 -87%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 April 20-26? Apr 28 $40 −$39 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26? Apr 24 $483 +$236 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26? Apr 24 $24 −$19 -77%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $642 −$575 -89%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19? Apr 17 $848 −$105 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 13-19? Apr 14 $3 +$2 +72%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19? Apr 14 $7 −$2 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $440 +$70 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $91 +$18 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $1,879 +$187 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $191 +$86 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 6-12? Apr 09 $0 $0 +200%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? Apr 09 $7 −$2 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 0m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 34m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 41m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 41m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $17 19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 19h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 44h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 45h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 7d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 7d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 7d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $546.40 · official $546.41 (match) · 3147 history records