Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7B 0x7b11…0e49 sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$1,894 (+40%) realized +$1,891 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%27W / 20L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$258
14 days+$123
30 days+$439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,806
other 5% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +101.6% +82.4% 100% 100% +56.1%
≤30d 23 +18.1% +6.8% 52% 48% +13.5%
≤90d 40 +13.9% +3.1% 50% 48% +22.3%
all 47 +26.1% +14.1% 57% 53% +26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.1% 53% +26.5%
10% +3.2% 53% +14.4%
15% -6.8% 49% +3.3%
20% -15.9% 49% -6.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$59 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$1,891
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses27 / 20
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage251d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $10 $21 +$11 (+106%)
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $203 +$71 +35%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $51 +$3 +6%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $51 −$42 -81%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 06 $47 −$46 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $51 +$101 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 03 $51 −$2 -5%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 02 $59 −$58 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $131 +$127 +97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $102 −$8 -8%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $51 +$53 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 25 $101 +$71 +70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $102 +$126 +124%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 23 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 23 $51 −$3 -6%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $102 +$116 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $35 +$33 +97%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 20 $51 +$34 +66%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $51 +$101 +197%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $38 −$37 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 11 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 10 $102 +$148 +146%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 04 $39 +$41 +105%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 May 04 $83 +$99 +119%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $204 +$337 +165%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 24 $30 −$29 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $441 +$591 +134%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Apr 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Lions vs. Eagles Apr 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Brewers vs. Dodgers Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Apr 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am? Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Nov 01 $100 +$118 +118%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 31 $30 +$49 +163%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 29 $50 +$90 +179%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 28 $244 +$131 +54%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Oct 20 $341 +$22 +6%
Tigers vs. Mariners Oct 16 $250 +$72 +29%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 16 $100 +$122 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $15 3d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 5d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 28¢ $54 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights $10 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 10¢ $51 7d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 8d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $102 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $101 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $92 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 58¢ $101 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $101 12d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $51 12d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $47 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $51 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 SELL Under 50¢ $48 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 15d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $59 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 50¢ $131 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 40¢ $94 21d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 42¢ $102 22d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $102 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 40¢ $41 23d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $51 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 44¢ $102 26d
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY No 58¢ $101 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.60 · official $82.60 (match) · 95 history records