Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b11…9361 crypto 706 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (464 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,249 (+10%) realized +$3,249 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%392W / 432L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day464.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (464 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 824 -0.8% -10.3% 48% 36% -11.5%
≤30d 824 -0.8% -10.3% 48% 36% -11.5%
≤90d 824 -0.8% -10.3% 48% 36% -11.5%
all 824 -0.8% -10.3% 48% 36% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover464.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 36% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 25% -20.0%
15% -26.7% 18% -27.7%
20% -33.9% 12% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$3,249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses392 / 432
Open positions1
Markets (closed)824 / 706
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day464.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 824 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 47¢ 60¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 47¢ 40¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$7 -120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$12 -173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$4 -192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$11 -155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$18 -158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$8 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$10 -131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$19 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$9 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$9 -128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$21 -292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $17 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $27 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $13 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $24 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.17 · official $5.99 (match) · 3500 history records