Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7B 0x7b10…acab sports 523 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$38,252 (+6%) realized +$38,252 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%299W / 224L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,235per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$4,919est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,689
7 days+$1,528
14 days−$4,532
30 days+$6,308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$27,689
other 4% +$3,985
world 0% −$9
economics 0% +$24
tech 0% +$20
politics 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -15.3% -23.4% 43% 36% -7.5%
≤30d 150 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 40% -6.8%
≤90d 452 +8.5% -1.8% 51% 47% -7.6%
all 523 +17.2% +6.0% 57% 52% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 52% -5.1%
10% -4.1% 46% -14.2%
15% -13.4% 40% -22.5%
20% -21.9% 35% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,229) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$823 vs −$958 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38,252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses299 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$4,919
Open positions0
Markets (closed)523 / 523
History coverage252d
Avg bet$1,235
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 523 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $96 +$38 +40%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 18 $1,139 −$1,123 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $98 −$96 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $674 −$664 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $712 −$698 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $379 +$550 +145%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $168 +$123 +73%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $777 −$770 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,885 +$313 +6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12,556 +$2,150 +17%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10,589 +$944 +9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $537 +$1,340 +250%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $206 −$205 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,977 +$46 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $264 −$259 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $559 +$1,044 +187%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $644 −$632 -98%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $1,116 −$1,096 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ka Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Co Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Monaco Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Jun 16 $83 −$83 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $256 −$256 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $138 −$138 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 16 $208 −$208 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $908 −$908 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 16 $712 −$712 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $2,085 −$1,386 -66%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,242 −$1,242 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 16 $1,661 −$1,661 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $4,970 −$4,970 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $585 −$585 -100%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $119 +$38 +32%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $1,730 +$1,906 +110%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $1,019 +$385 +38%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 15 $133 +$32 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $65 −$2 -4%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $60 −$3 -4%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $4,105 +$3,130 +76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $23 +$27 +114%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $2,929 +$2,591 +88%
Raphinha: 1+ assists Jun 14 $12 +$3 +23%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $4 +$16 +414%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY Yes 52¢ $1,139 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 49¢ $98 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 71¢ $96 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $674 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $614 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $98 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $379 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $168 7h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 66¢ $777 8h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $2,351 20h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $2,534 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 85¢ $12,556 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $31 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $9 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $188 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $94 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $13 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $14 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $9 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $1,749 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $9 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $9 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $9 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $44 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $19 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $606 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $0 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $10 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $94 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $3,209 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1757 history records