Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b10…2b22 crypto 358 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%268W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 248 -0.2% -9.7% 77% 77% -9.7%
≤30d 357 -1.4% -10.8% 75% 75% -10.1%
≤90d 357 -1.4% -10.8% 75% 75% -10.1%
all 357 -1.4% -10.8% 75% 75% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 75% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 62% -18.7%
15% -27.1% 15% -26.6%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses268 / 89
Open positions1
Markets (closed)357 / 358
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 78¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.39 · official $1.25 (match) · 666 history records