Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7b0f…145c
politics · 179 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$462 +45%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$285 · open −$40
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$112
Realized+$285
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses97 / 48
Open positions70
Markets (closed)145 / 179
History coverage31d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day111.6
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 70 History 145 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$134
14 days+$189
30 days+$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-13%)
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $5 −$4 (-45%)
Will Beyoncé be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+43%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-31%)
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on De Jun 13 $0 +$1 +3916%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 13 $3 +$5 +196%
Will Jamieson Greer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027 Jun 13 $0 +$3 +9378%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Director at the 2026 BAFTA Awards? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 3? Jun 13 $0 +$2 +5416%
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +59%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -101%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Marada Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamen Jun 13 $0 $0 -52%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $19 +$3 +14%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $16 +$19 +114%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +25%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $4 +$3 +61%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $9 +$5 +59%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $13 +$6 +46%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $15 +$2 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $11 +$2 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $15 +$4 +29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $24 +$16 +66%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $8 +$6 +82%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $32 +$15 +46%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 12 $2 +$1 +39%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 11 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +127%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +35%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Jun 11 $5 +$10 +183%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -65%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $9 +$3 +40%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $0 $0 +33%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $5 +$6 +130%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -36%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 28% +$86
politics 26% +$97
other 16% +$17
world 16% +$26
culture 10% +$27
crypto 3% −$6
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $1 1m
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $0 5m
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 1¢ $1 19m
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Marada Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamen SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 5h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 1¢ $1 6h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 10h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 10h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+70.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +148.1% +124.5% 65% 62% +25.7%
≤30d 144 +89.5% +71.4% 67% 62% +25.8%
≤90d 145 +88.2% +70.3% 67% 62% +25.7%
all 145 +88.2% +70.3% 67% 62% +25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover111.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +70.3% 62% +25.7%
10% ← realistic here +54.0% 53% +13.7%
15% +39.1% 41% +2.7%
20% +25.5% 32% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.39 · official $112.39 (match) · 3500 history records