Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b0a…f217 crypto 192 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-3%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate71%135W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day92.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -5.6% -14.6% 71% 67% -11.7%
≤30d 191 -5.6% -14.6% 71% 67% -11.7%
≤90d 191 -5.6% -14.6% 71% 67% -11.7%
all 191 -5.6% -14.6% 71% 67% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 67% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 42% -20.2%
15% -30.2% 12% -27.9%
20% -37.0% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses135 / 56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day92.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 65¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$5 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.17 · official $1.74 (match) · 559 history records