Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b08…a66b sports 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 780d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$42 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate37%27W / 46L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$3
14 days−$20
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$26
other 24% −$18
politics 13% +$1
world 1% −$18
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% +$8
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -6.7% -15.6% 44% 40% -11.7%
≤30d 30 -14.9% -23.0% 40% 37% -13.5%
≤90d 30 -14.9% -23.0% 40% 37% -13.5%
all 73 -13.3% -21.5% 37% 23% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 23% -10.2%
10% -29.0% 23% -18.8%
15% -35.9% 19% -26.6%
20% -42.2% 16% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

780d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses27 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)73 / 84
History coverage780d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 71¢ 88¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 47¢ 64¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+35%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 67¢ 44¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-35%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 79¢ 41¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? No 77¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 39¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -39%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +112%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +72%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -20%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +156%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $11 −$2 -17%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 11 $4 +$1 +32%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $22 −$22 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
ITF kiseljak: Josip Simundza vs Yannick Baluska Jun 10 $12 +$34 +276%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $17 −$17 -98%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Stars vs. Avalanche May 22 $19 +$23 +122%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Sabres vs. Devils Feb 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Thunder vs. Pistons Feb 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Ducks vs. Canucks Feb 25 $10 +$14 +138%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 30 $200 $0 -0%
Blue Jackets vs. Blackhawks Jan 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs Jan 30 $4 +$4 +104%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Jan 30 $7 +$19 +258%
Suns vs. Hawks Jan 27 $9 +$12 +138%
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs Jan 27 $12 +$11 +89%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jan 27 $140 $0 -0%
Bucks vs. 76ers Jan 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jan 23 $160 $0 -0%
Celtics vs. Nets Jan 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 21 $160 $0 -0%
Maple Leafs vs. Utah Jan 21 $15 +$6 +41%
Hawks vs. Grizzlies Jan 21 $16 −$16 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jan 14 $180 $0 -0%
Pacers vs. 76ers Dec 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 22m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 17¢ $0 33m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 16¢ $1 41m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 80¢ $2 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 74¢ $4 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 46¢ $5 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 25¢ $3 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 39¢ $4 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 69¢ $3 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 42¢ $1 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 39¢ $2 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 43¢ $2 14h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 16h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 17h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 61¢ $1 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 20h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 21h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 68¢ $1 22h
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? BUY No 77¢ $1 22h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 22h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 69¢ $1 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.18 · official $37.18 (match) · 195 history records