Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b06…0695 world 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%30W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$3
other 28% +$3
politics 13% −$1
sports 12% −$2
economics 5% +$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 28 +0.4% -9.2% 39% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 74 -1.2% -10.6% 30% 0% -9.6%
all 105 -1.0% -10.4% 29% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses30 / 75
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage278d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $92 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $83 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $147 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $92 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $96 +$2 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $276 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $88 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $38 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $140 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $216 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $165 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $79 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $158 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $173 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $12 −$1 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $92 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $79 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $81 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $1 $0 +8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 22 $3 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 19 $80 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $89 −$3 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $50 $0 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $177 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $171 +$2 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $90 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $104 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $171 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $151 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $4 $0 -2%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $25 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $66 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $92 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $33 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $31 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $82 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $83 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $92 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $92 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $55 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $55 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $91 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $92 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $59 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $32 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $24 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $89 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $89 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.00 (match) · 458 history records