Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7B 0x7b05…9f01 world 302 markets active 1h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$226 (-4%) realized −$219 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%95W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$30
14 days−$85
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$141
politics 19% −$52
world 17% −$28
other 5% $0
tech 1% +$2
finance 0% −$3
weather 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -5.8% -14.7% 42% 28% -16.9%
≤30d 164 -12.1% -20.5% 40% 27% -18.2%
≤90d 220 -15.9% -23.9% 39% 26% -24.3%
all 250 -12.5% -20.9% 38% 25% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 25% -13.2%
10% -28.4% 19% -21.5%
15% -35.3% 16% -29.1%
20% -41.7% 14% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses95 / 155
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions52
Markets (closed)250 / 302
History coverage538d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 67¢ 90¢ $18 $24 +$6 (+34%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 70¢ 56¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-20%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 65¢ 84¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+29%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 70¢ 77¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+10%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 78¢ 92¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 39¢ 51¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+32%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 26¢ 27¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 27¢ 30¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 68¢ 71¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 72¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 56¢ 82¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+47%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 54¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 76¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 88¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $6 +$8 +142%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +47%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$4 -47%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +180%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +49%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $4 −$1 -28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$6 +611%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +51%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $9 −$4 -45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +307%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$4 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -24%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +48%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 13¢ $1 50m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 30¢ $3 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 2h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 26¢ $4 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No $1 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No $0 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No $1 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No $1 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No $0 9h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 76¢ $3 9h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 10h
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 14h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 14h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 30¢ $1 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $1 19h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 75¢ $1 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $2 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $2 19h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland $1 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 22h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No $1 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $1 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.38 · official $212.30 (match) · 1172 history records