Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:57:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7B 0x7b04…d77a other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$15
politics 29% −$10
sports 13% +$27
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 125 +0.7% -8.9% 15% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 9% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 7% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage125d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $214 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $236 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $247 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $238 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $211 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $248 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $221 −$1 -1%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $178 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $196 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $252 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $390 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $214 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $453 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $258 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $438 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $234 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $393 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 14 $411 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 14 $184 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $436 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $256 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $614 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $234 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $182 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $481 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $198 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $184 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 07 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $196 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $242 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $34 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $24 10d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $24 11d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $202 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $202 27d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $236 28d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $236 29d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 29d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $238 30d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $215 30d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $215 31d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $178 31d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $178 31d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 31d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $211 32d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $248 32d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $248 33d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $198 33d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $198 34d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $220 34d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $221 34d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $185 35d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $185 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 377 history records