Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

7B 0x7b03…25a4 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 212d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%6W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$161per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 212d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-17.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	-9.0%	-17.7%	60%	60%	-11.5%
≤30d	10	-9.0%	-17.7%	60%	60%	-11.5%
≤90d	10	-9.0%	-17.7%	60%	60%	-11.5%
all	10	-9.0%	-17.7%	60%	60%	-11.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.7%	60%	-11.5%
10%	-25.6%	50%	-20.0%
15%	-32.8%	50%	-27.7%
20%	-39.4%	40%	-34.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 51% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$81 vs −$129 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.94 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage

Net worth$800

Realized−$18

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses6 / 4

Open positions4

Markets (closed)10 / 14

History coverage212d

Avg bet$161

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$200	$201	+$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	89¢	90¢	$200	$201	+$1 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$200	$199	−$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$181	−$181	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$202	+$92	+46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$202	+$106	+52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$203	+$142	+70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$234	−$234	-100%
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	Jun 20	$100	−$100	-100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 23?	Jun 20	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$120	+$14	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$101	+$68	+67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$101	+$63	+62%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$202	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$202	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$202	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$201	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	85¢	$181	13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$202	13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$202	32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$203	32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	29¢	$31	34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$203	36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$120	37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	46h
Lighter Airdrop on December 23?	BUY Yes	4¢	$3	187d
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	BUY Yes	3¢	$100	211d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $799.51 · official $799.51 (match) · 31 history records