Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7B
0x7b02…4991
world · 67 markets active 1d ago
0.0score
+$467,942 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$290,980 · open +$198,759
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$402,957
Realized+$290,980
Unrealized+$198,759
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses27 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$454
Open positions16
Markets (closed)50 / 67
History coverage102d
Avg bet$101,391
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 16 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4,880
30 days−$181,460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 37¢ 99¢ $119,547 $318,057 +$198,510 (+166%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $30,815 $30,893 +$78 (+0%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 68¢ 81¢ $8,824 $10,454 +$1,629 (+18%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 8¢ 77¢ $966 $9,627 +$8,662 (+897%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $4,728 $9,336 +$4,608 (+97%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 77¢ 82¢ $8,237 $8,844 +$607 (+7%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $3,790 $3,819 +$29 (+1%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3,863 $3,649 −$214 (-6%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 74¢ 99¢ $2,068 $2,756 +$689 (+33%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 76¢ 81¢ $2,130 $2,284 +$154 (+7%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $2,016 $2,194 +$178 (+9%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $279 $440 +$161 (+58%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 52¢ 22¢ $820 $341 −$479 (-58%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $15,555 $194 −$15,361 (-99%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $206 $40 −$166 (-81%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? No 7¢ 1¢ $276 $28 −$248 (-90%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6,815 $0 −$6,815 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $24,174 $0 −$24,174 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $99,470 $0 −$99,470 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $64,095 $0 −$64,095 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $21,001 $0 −$21,001 (-100%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $38,688 $0 −$38,688 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2,820 $0 −$2,820 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $386,901 +$3,104 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $6,815 −$6,815 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,268,000 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $17,316 +$296 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $3,495 +$26 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $8,640 +$257 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $5,793 +$778 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $20,108 +$823 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $37,200 +$2,800 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $21,029 +$1,028 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $92,930 +$2,442 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $16,550 +$140 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $132,804 −$99,179 -75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $64,109 −$64,095 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $24,543 −$24,174 -98%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $26,101 +$338 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $14,229 +$771 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $2,820 −$2,820 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $74,275 +$725 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 01 $50,880 +$1,926 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $168,435 +$7,207 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $64,116 +$627 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $156,368 +$140,484 +90%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $168,064 +$1,633 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 28 $18,389 +$129 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 27 $24,393 −$37,031 -152%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $9,532 −$9,532 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $21,007 −$21,001 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 16 $205,234 +$42,717 +21%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 15 $7,617 −$417 -6%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $412,958 +$788 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 11 $138,226 −$138,226 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Solana reach $90 on March 11? Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Apr 09 $36 −$36 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 09 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? Apr 09 $3,880 −$3,880 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Apr 09 $32,818 +$22,421 +68%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 09 $3,293 −$3,293 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Apr 09 $12,621 −$12,621 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Apr 09 $5,222 −$5,222 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Apr 09 $42,081 −$12,051 -29%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $924,404 −$47,110 -5%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $39,856 +$97,338 +244%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 07 $10,901 −$10,831 -99%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $298,901 +$11,906 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $425,205 −$238,292 -56%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $473,505 +$238,522 +50%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $260,419 +$259,392 +100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $86,709 +$189,209 +218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 34% +$596,684
world 29% −$109,084
politics 20% +$2,203
crypto 11% +$11,150
other 4% +$11,906
finance 2% +$317
sports 0% −$22,545
tech 0% −$894
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $15,568 25h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $12,726 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $66 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $552 40h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $1,287 45h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $796 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $403 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $360 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $69,208 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $61 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $3 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $6 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $10 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $6 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $8 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 17 -20.8% -28.3% 71% 6% -17.3%
≤90d 48 -28.2% -35.1% 52% 12% -11.9%
all 50 -20.7% -28.3% 54% 16% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.3% 16% -5.3%
10% -35.1% 12% -14.4%
15% ← realistic here -41.4% 12% -22.7%
20% -47.2% 12% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402,956.78 · official $403,728.72 (match) · 3500 history records