Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7B 0x7b02…75da other 8 markets active 3h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$17
sports 10% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +90.9% +72.7% 100% 100% +69.3%
≤30d 4 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 50% -14.8%
≤90d 4 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 50% -14.8%
all 4 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 50% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 50% -14.8%
10% -21.9% 50% -22.9%
15% -29.4% 50% -30.4%
20% -36.4% 25% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$27 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage13d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 09 $25 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $35 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $36 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 12d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 12d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.70 · official $143.70 (match) · 10 history records