Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7B 0x7b01…79e4 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$11 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate89%16W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$39
other 12% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +3.5% -6.3% 89% 44% -10.1%
≤30d 18 +3.5% -6.3% 89% 44% -10.1%
≤90d 18 +3.5% -6.3% 89% 44% -10.1%
all 18 +3.5% -6.3% 89% 44% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 44% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 11% -18.7%
15% -23.5% 6% -26.5%
20% -31.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$117 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses16 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 92¢ 90¢ $149 $146 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $126 +$25 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $99 +$25 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $69 +$31 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $62 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $180 −$118 -66%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $166 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $142 +$23 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $127 +$10 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $112 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $98 +$15 +15%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $90 +$7 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $87 +$2 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $83 +$5 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $71 +$13 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $63 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $115 −$115 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $108 +$8 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $150 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $126 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $99 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $69 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $62 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $62 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $180 52m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $166 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $142 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $127 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $98 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $90 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $87 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $83 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $71 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $70 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $115 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $108 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $100 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.23 · official $110.68 · 38 history records