Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7af9…9dc6 other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%15W / 52L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
politics 13% −$8
other 12% −$10
crypto 2% +$2
sports 2% +$66
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 56 +6.0% -4.1% 21% 16% -8.4%
all 67 +4.9% -5.1% 22% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 13% -9.4%
10% -14.2% 12% -18.0%
15% -22.5% 12% -26.0%
20% -30.1% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×4.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses15 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage606d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $140 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $84 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $123 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $119 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $5 +$5 +83%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 08 $118 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $363 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $121 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $240 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $116 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $121 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $119 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $120 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $123 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 24 $124 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 22 $120 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 18 $128 −$3 -2%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $130 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $132 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $132 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +83%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $7 +$7 +104%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $8 +$4 +52%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Canadiens vs. Rangers Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics Apr 02 $29 −$29 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 02 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 27h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 28h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 45h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 47h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $82 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 9d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $17 10d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $17 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 13d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 14d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 14d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 14d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL No 100¢ $27 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.37 · official $107.37 (match) · 282 history records