Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7af7…54c3 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$101 (-3%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$14
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$105
world 16% $0
politics 15% +$14
other 8% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +34.8% +22.0% 100% 100% +22.0%
≤30d 4 -17.2% -25.1% 25% 25% -28.4%
≤90d 14 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 7% -12.1%
all 14 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 7% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 7% -12.1%
10% -26.9% 7% -20.5%
15% -34.0% 0% -28.2%
20% -40.4% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$29 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage78d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? Jun 23 $44 +$15 +35%
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $35 −$1 -4%
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) May 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? May 24 $66 $0 +0%
Spread: Al Fateh Saudi Club (-2.5) May 21 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Venezuela become 51st state? May 21 $44 +$3 +7%
Spread: FC Metaloglobus București (-1.5) May 12 $445 +$5 +1%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 11 $450 $0 -0%
Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5) Apr 27 $392 +$4 +1%
Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5) Apr 26 $400 −$8 -2%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Apr 26 $400 $0 +0%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) Apr 12 $341 +$11 +3%
Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-2.5) Apr 08 $199 +$20 +10%
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026? Apr 06 $199 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? SELL Yes $30 1h
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? SELL Yes $28 1h
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? BUY Yes $22 2h
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? BUY Yes $22 2h
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $16 7d
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $17 8d
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $18 8d
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $17 8d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) BUY Qingdao Hainiu FC $28 29d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5) BUY Qingdao Hainiu FC $28 29d
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $32 29d
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $34 29d
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $33 30d
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $34 30d
Spread: Al Fateh Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Fateh Saudi Club $0 33d
Spread: Al Fateh Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Fateh Saudi Club $41 33d
Spread: Al Fateh Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Fateh Saudi Club $40 33d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? SELL Yes $23 33d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? SELL Yes $2 33d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? SELL Yes $22 33d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? BUY Yes $22 33d
Will Venezuela become 51st state? BUY Yes $22 33d
Spread: FC Metaloglobus București (-1.5) BUY FC Hermannstadt 99¢ $445 42d
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 SELL No 97¢ $450 42d
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 BUY No 97¢ $450 42d
Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-2.5) BUY VfB Stuttgart 99¢ $392 57d
Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5) SELL Stade Rennais FC 1901 95¢ $392 57d
Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5) BUY Stade Rennais FC 1901 97¢ $400 57d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $400 57d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $400 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records