Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7af5…72bf other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate41%41W / 59L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$31
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$32
politics 15% −$1
other 13% $0
economics 10% +$1
sports 10% −$12
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.1% -13.2% 44% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 19 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 35 -1.8% -11.1% 31% 0% -9.3%
all 100 -0.3% -9.8% 41% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses41 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage467d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 88¢ $179 $180 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $266 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $145 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $4 $0 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $197 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $179 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -26%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $195 +$3 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $58 −$5 -9%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $178 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $159 −$3 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $184 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $200 +$9 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $298 −$2 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $321 +$29 +9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,101 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $75 +$2 +2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $93 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $33 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $95 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $84 +$2 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $33 −$2 -6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $33 −$9 -27%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $997 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $1,095 +$1 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,293 −$3 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $998 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $73 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 15 $4 $0 -4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 15 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Jul 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 15 $13 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Jul 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 11–18? Jul 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 13 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $179 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $145 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $111 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $18 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $8 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $189 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $197 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $122 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $17 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $139 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $179 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 89¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $170 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 69¢ $96 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 69¢ $102 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 68¢ $195 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.25 · official $180.25 (match) · 375 history records