Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:31:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7A 0x7af1…de6f politics 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$13
politics 40% −$16
sports 9% −$27
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 110 -4.5% -13.6% 5% 5% -9.7%
all 123 -5.0% -14.1% 7% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 7% -9.7%
10% -22.3% 7% -18.4%
15% -29.8% 4% -26.2%
20% -36.7% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage112d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $25 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $292 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $21 $0 -1%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $196 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $204 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $246 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $249 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $408 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $249 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $248 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $194 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $181 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $249 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $259 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $439 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $228 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $208 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $242 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $233 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $252 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $218 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $252 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $200 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $244 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $267 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $238 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $194 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $230 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $238 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $272 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 9d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $27 9d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $27 10d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 10d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 11d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 12d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $21 18d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 19d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $196 19d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $196 24d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 25d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 25d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $204 26d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $204 27d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 27d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $246 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $246 29d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $249 29d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $249 31d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $187 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 349 history records