Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7aed…df39 other 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (158 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$99 (-0%) realized +$84 · open −$183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 30L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day157.5pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$9,187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,297
7 days+$210
14 days+$268
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$50
tech 23% −$150
weather 18% −$236
sports 8% +$537
politics 3% −$8
world 2% −$2
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (158 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -6.8% -15.7% 40% 26% -8.6%
≤30d 55 -4.7% -13.8% 45% 31% -8.4%
≤90d 55 -4.7% -13.8% 45% 31% -8.4%
all 55 -4.7% -13.8% 45% 31% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover157.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 31% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 16% -17.2%
15% -29.6% 9% -25.2%
20% -36.5% 7% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +18% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$52 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$9,187
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$183
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions134
Markets (closed)55 / 189
History coverage18d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day157.5
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 134 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $420 $404 −$16 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $392 $392 −$0 (-0%)
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $375 $376 +$1 (+0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 84¢ 84¢ $350 $348 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 81¢ 80¢ $338 $336 −$2 (-1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $286 $297 +$11 (+4%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 90¢ $253 $285 +$32 (+13%)
Will Qatar go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 89¢ 90¢ $266 $270 +$4 (+2%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 44¢ $238 $238 +$0 (+0%)
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 53¢ 52¢ $224 $222 −$2 (-1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 76¢ $176 $204 +$28 (+16%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 69¢ $166 $184 +$18 (+11%)
Will Scotland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 82¢ 87¢ $159 $169 +$10 (+6%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 44¢ 48¢ $156 $169 +$13 (+9%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 46¢ $151 $161 +$10 (+6%)
Will Australia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 66¢ 77¢ $137 $159 +$23 (+17%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $96 $141 +$45 (+47%)
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 72¢ 69¢ $143 $137 −$6 (-4%)
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 29¢ 32¢ $119 $136 +$17 (+14%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $135 $135 +$1 (+1%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $139 $134 −$5 (-4%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 41¢ $159 $130 −$29 (-18%)
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 49¢ 60¢ $104 $126 +$21 (+21%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? No 84¢ 84¢ $119 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 38¢ 38¢ $114 $116 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 17 $143 +$26 +18%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $517 −$31 -6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $474 −$6 -1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $461 −$51 -11%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $462 −$60 -13%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $403 −$71 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 17 $62 −$2 -3%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 17 $12 −$3 -29%
Will Hurricanes win the 2026 Stanley Cup 4-2 be the exact series outco Jun 17 $56 −$6 -11%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 17 $719 −$22 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 17 $948 −$18 -2%
Will Golden Knights win the 2026 Stanley Cup 4-3 be the exact series o Jun 17 $43 −$6 -15%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $179 −$58 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 17 $695 −$500 -72%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 17 $3,979 −$435 -11%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $383 −$14 -4%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $83 +$16 +19%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $12 +$3 +24%
Will there be exactly 6 games played during the 2026 Stanley Cup Final Jun 15 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Hurricanes win the 2026 Stanley Cup 4-3 be the exact series outco Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $209 −$68 -33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $203 −$12 -6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $272 +$237 +87%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? Jun 14 $50 −$14 -28%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $320 +$59 +18%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $158 +$14 +9%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $523 +$155 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $494 +$66 +13%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $5,195 +$261 +5%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $4 +$5 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $545 +$55 +10%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $29 +$5 +16%
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? Jun 11 $16 −$3 -17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $316 +$599 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1,814 +$14 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1,325 +$108 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $92 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 10 $72 −$6 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $6 +$7 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $45 +$11 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $64 +$5 +8%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $543 +$71 +13%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $333 +$94 +28%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $528 −$97 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 3m
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 3m
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $2 4m
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 4m
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $0 4m
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 10m
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 25m
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $15 25m
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $0 25m
Will Jordan Pickford record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 81¢ $4 41m
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $14 44m
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $2 54m
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL No 74¢ $10 54m
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL No 74¢ $16 54m
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL No 74¢ $1 54m
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL No 74¢ $6 54m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $414 57m
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $12 1h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $12 1h
Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $43 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 44¢ $36 1h
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $43 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 44¢ $36 1h
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $43 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 44¢ $36 1h
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $43 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 44¢ $36 1h
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $43 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,186.59 · official $9,187.43 (match) · 3054 history records