Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7aec…2b9e other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$181 (+4%) realized −$103 · open +$284
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$1,394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$827
sports 15% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.3% -14.3% 38% 38% +5.2%
≤30d 8 -5.3% -14.3% 38% 38% +5.2%
≤90d 8 -5.3% -14.3% 38% 38% +5.2%
all 8 -5.3% -14.3% 38% 38% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 38% +5.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 25% -4.8%
15% -30.0% 12% -14.0%
20% -36.8% 0% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$252 vs −$24 · ×10.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.3 per $1 lost it wins $6.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,394
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$284
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $920 $1,393 +$473 (+51%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 −$94 -91%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1,846 +$459 +25%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $632 +$102 +16%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $38 −$7 -17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $644 −$11 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $500 +$196 +39%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $90 −$6 -7%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $53 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 50m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 50m
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 50m
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 50m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 51m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $111 51m
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 22¢ $32 53m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 53m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 53m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 55m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 55m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 56m
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 82¢ $181 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 77¢ $458 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 73¢ $548 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 62¢ $430 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 49¢ $429 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 38¢ $689 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 32¢ $690 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 36¢ $474 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 95¢ $474 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 34¢ $82 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 94¢ $83 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 32¢ $104 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 93¢ $104 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 22¢ $32 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 12¢ $32 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $38 6h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 78¢ $74 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,393.71 · official $1,393.71 (match) · 44 history records