Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7A 0x7aea…2ab8 crypto 1939 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,459 (-18%) realized −$1,460 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%947W / 761L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day96.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$416
7 days−$327
14 days−$250
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$441
weather 12% −$24
sports 1% +$14
other 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 -22.5% -29.8% 47% 37% -32.5%
≤30d 1708 +1.3% -8.4% 55% 48% -10.6%
≤90d 1708 +1.3% -8.4% 55% 48% -10.6%
all 1708 +1.3% -8.4% 55% 48% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 48% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 40% -19.2%
15% -25.2% 35% -27.0%
20% -32.5% 29% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$1,460
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses947 / 761
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions51
Markets (closed)1708 / 1939
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day96.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 1708 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? No 68¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? No 69¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? No 71¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? No 69¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? No 72¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? No 75¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? No 74¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? No 74¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? No 73¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? No 81¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 85¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? No 81¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 69¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? No 74¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 17? No 88¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? No 86¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? No 81¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 74¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 70¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? No 75¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? No 73¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? No 89¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? No 89¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? No 92¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 17? No 70¢ 70¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 449 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 29? Jun 17 $3 −$4 -128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 21? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 6? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 3? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 6? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $5 57m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 73¢ $4 57m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 68¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 85¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.86 · official $234.49 (match) · 3500 history records