Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7ae8…08c3 crypto 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$25 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate88%111W / 15L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% $0
sports 22% −$3
other 14% +$12
economics 11% $0
tech 11% −$2
politics 1% +$10
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 18 +0.7% -8.9% 94% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 59 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 2% -9.3%
all 126 +0.1% -9.5% 88% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 7% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses111 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)126 / 133
History coverage243d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $75 $75 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 10 $13 −$2 -14%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 23? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $11 +$2 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 25? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 21? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15? May 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? May 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? May 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 11? May 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? May 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 29? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 30? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 29? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 23-29? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $76 1h
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 9d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 9d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $21 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $11 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $16 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $13 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $12 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $12 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 32d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 36d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 36d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $19 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $18 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 36d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 49d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 71d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 71d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 71d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.29 · official $153.29 (match) · 400 history records