Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ae5…5e41 crypto 294 markets active 19h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (469 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$646 (+2%) realized +$646 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%157W / 137L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day469.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,744
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (469 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 239 -12.5% -20.8% 52% 45% -14.4%
≤30d 294 -10.0% -18.5% 53% 47% -14.0%
≤90d 294 -10.0% -18.5% 53% 47% -14.0%
all 294 -10.0% -18.5% 53% 47% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover469.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 47% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 38% -22.2%
15% -33.5% 29% -29.8%
20% -40.0% 18% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$66 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$646
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses157 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)294 / 294
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$130
Trades / day469.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 294 Trades
no open positions (87 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $525 +$143 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $312 −$173 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $313 −$177 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $39 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$61 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$49 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $111 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $312 +$429 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$43 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $307 +$150 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $252 +$341 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $620 +$376 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $410 +$160 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $516 −$173 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $636 +$247 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $308 +$39 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $309 +$93 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $72 +$39 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $308 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $116 +$64 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $308 +$53 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $306 −$100 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $208 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $142 +$43 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $205 +$66 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $207 +$34 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $282 −$100 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $119 +$44 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $347 +$29 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$19 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $308 +$132 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $61 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $57 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $35 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $37 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $37 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $23 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $23 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $33 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $33 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $18 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $9 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $27 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $14 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $22 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $18 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $17 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records