Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ae5…45b7 other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,636 (+1%) realized +$1,632 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate24%32W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$1,475per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$19
14 days+$14
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$17
politics 36% −$90
sports 13% +$1,722
world 3% −$42
economics 2% −$4
culture 1% −$2
finance 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 +10.4% -0.2% 18% 12% -9.3%
≤90d 82 -8.2% -17.0% 11% 7% -9.0%
all 135 +2.7% -7.1% 24% 12% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 12% -8.8%
10% -16.0% 12% -17.5%
15% -24.1% 10% -25.5%
20% -31.5% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,957) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$8 · ×9.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized+$1,632
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses32 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,475
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $430 $433 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $430 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,495 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $943 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $8,539 −$10 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $2,788 −$4 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,340 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $4,004 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,478 −$5 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 08 $1,167 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $6,181 −$7 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,237 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $82 +$56 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $78 +$75 +97%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $994 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $543 +$1 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,459 −$3 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $780 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $2,237 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $4,390 −$5 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,848 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,763 −$3 -0%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 25 $69 +$22 +32%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $53 +$83 +158%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,816 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,129 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,085 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $3,167 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $3,002 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,429 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $5,380 −$6 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $5,634 −$8 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,288 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,298 −$2 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,402 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,431 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $2,829 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $430 40m
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $430 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $234 2h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $234 5h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,147 47h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,149 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $941 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $943 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $430 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,561 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,564 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,339 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,340 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,524 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,526 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,222 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,224 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,123 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,125 9d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,165 10d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,167 10d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,348 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,350 11d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,235 11d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,237 12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $82 14d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $78 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $993 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.32 · official $433.32 (match) · 433 history records