Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7A 0x7ae4…04a7 sports 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,559 (-10%) realized −$2,559 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%126W / 109L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$214est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days−$112
14 days−$112
30 days−$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$1,718
other 22% −$923
politics 0% −$93
world 0% +$13
tech 0% −$20
crypto 0% −$7
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -30.2% -36.8% 43% 43% -26.5%
≤30d 29 -23.7% -31.0% 45% 38% -33.4%
≤90d 220 -15.4% -23.4% 51% 50% -21.2%
all 235 -11.5% -19.9% 54% 52% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 52% -18.9%
10% -27.6% 47% -26.6%
15% -34.6% 37% -33.7%
20% -41.0% 26% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +29% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$80 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,559
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses126 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$214
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage161d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $382 +$60 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $37 −$36 -99%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $100 −$93 -93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $50 −$50 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $71 −$69 -98%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 27 $33 +$9 +26%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $50 +$3 +6%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $51 −$10 -20%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $61 −$1 -2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $25 −$5 -20%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 May 25 $21 +$5 +22%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $30 +$26 +86%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $13 $0 +2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $15 +$8 +52%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 May 23 $20 $0 -1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $15 +$6 +39%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $15 +$25 +162%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Score May 22 $7 +$8 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 22 $36 +$11 +31%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $94 +$2 +2%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5 May 21 $53 +$7 +14%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $11 +$11 +98%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $51 −$40 -78%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $24 +$24 +100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 19 $20 +$28 +135%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $51 +$31 +60%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5 May 19 $56 +$17 +31%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $49 +$7 +14%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 May 18 $29 −$29 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 18 $50 +$15 +30%
CD Leganés vs. SD Huesca: Both Teams to Score May 18 $31 −$17 -55%
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka May 18 $50 +$32 +64%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $74 −$73 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 18 $58 +$26 +46%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $40 −$40 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $10 +$8 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $10 +$3 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $442 47m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $382 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $50 3d
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $3 3d
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $34 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $10 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $21 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $4 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 10¢ $94 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 10¢ $2 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $50 14d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens $50 23d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 42¢ $21 23d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 27¢ $10 24d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 SELL Over 99¢ $42 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 78¢ $33 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 44¢ $20 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 24d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens SELL Canadiens 43¢ $53 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers $10 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 96¢ $71 25d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 28¢ $9 25d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 43¢ $41 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 54¢ $41 26d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 20¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 519 history records