Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ae1…a068 world 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%35W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$11
other 23% −$8
sports 12% +$5
politics 12% $0
economics 4% +$1
crypto 1% +$5
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$8
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 31 -0.5% -10.0% 26% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 76 -0.8% -10.2% 32% 1% -9.7%
all 111 -0.3% -9.8% 32% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses35 / 76
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage294d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $132 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $279 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $133 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $257 −$8 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $282 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $234 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $141 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $76 −$15 -20%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $314 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $334 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $481 −$6 -1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $154 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $317 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $407 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $169 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $607 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $223 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $637 +$3 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $188 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $17 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $174 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $175 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $37 −$8 -21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $214 −$4 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $165 −$4 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $115 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $36 +$12 +33%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $281 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $7 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 18 $125 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $316 +$2 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $128 −$1 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $182 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $337 +$3 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $176 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $410 +$2 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $161 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $163 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $242 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $501 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $188 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $59 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $125 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $132 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $133 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $133 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $138 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $146 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $133 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $104 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $113 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $117 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $127 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $127 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $84 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $48 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $140 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $78 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $79 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $141 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $36 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $105 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $155 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $155 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $155 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.48 · official $60.48 (match) · 538 history records