Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:09:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7add…bbc5 world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$1
other 17% +$2
crypto 2% −$2
weather 2% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +16.0% +5.0% 60% 10% -9.1%
≤90d 10 +16.0% +5.0% 60% 10% -9.1%
all 26 -4.7% -13.8% 62% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 4% -9.3%
10% -22.0% 4% -18.0%
15% -29.6% 4% -25.9%
20% -36.5% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage472d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $85 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $58 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $19 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $118 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $82 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $80 +$2 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Brazil in the first 100 days? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 29 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 24? Mar 25 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 17 $9 $0 +4%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 09 $6 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $5 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $2 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $37 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $43 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $40 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $44 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $20 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $6 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $15 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $19 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $19 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $43 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $9 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.81 · official $39.56 (match) · 93 history records