trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 10 | +16.0% | +5.0% | 60% | 10% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +16.0% | +5.0% | 60% | 10% | -9.1% |
| all | 26 | -4.7% | -13.8% | 62% | 4% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.8% | 4% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -22.0% | 4% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -29.6% | 4% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -36.5% | 4% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $40 | $40 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 16 | $85 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 10 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $58 | +$1 | +1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 10 | $19 | $0 | +1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 08 | $118 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 08 | $82 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 06 | $80 | +$2 | +2% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 05 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Rumble buy TikTok? | Dec 15 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? | Jun 12 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump impose tariffs on Brazil in the first 100 days? | Apr 16 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? | Mar 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? | Mar 29 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 24? | Mar 25 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? | Mar 24 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 17 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we | Mar 16 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 11 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? | Mar 09 | $6 | $0 | +5% |