Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ad7…4d49 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 641d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,363 (-13%) realized −$5,353 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,074per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$3
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 97% −$5,375
other 3% +$7
sports 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -17.3% -25.2% 58% 42% -12.1%
≤30d 14 -15.5% -23.6% 50% 36% -11.7%
≤90d 19 -26.5% -33.5% 47% 32% -88.3%
all 33 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 42% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 42% -21.6%
10% -21.7% 33% -29.1%
15% -29.3% 30% -36.0%
20% -36.2% 18% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -87% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,130) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$818 vs −$1,339 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

641d coverage
Net worth$684
Realized−$5,353
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)33 / 38
History coverage641d
Avg bet$1,074
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $687 $678 −$9 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8 +$2 +32%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $246 −$5 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? May 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? May 01 $2,023 −$2,023 -100%
Israeli ground operation against Fordow before August? May 01 $400 −$400 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $1,364 +$646 +47%
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February? Feb 28 $9 +$4 +41%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 21 $477 +$44 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Feb 21 $1,130 −$287 -25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $4,236 −$2,064 -49%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $118 +$22 +19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 25 $1,746 −$1,579 -90%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 18 $135 −$99 -74%
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? Dec 01 $51 +$106 +207%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Nov 25 $15,718 −$13,598 -86%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 27 $2,248 +$1,599 +71%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $2,000 +$240 +12%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? Nov 15 $7,003 +$10,667 +152%
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024? Nov 01 $1,087 +$1,366 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 29h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $8 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $9 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 46h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $31 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $448 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $234 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $95 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $24 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $81 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $120 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $127 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $684.36 · official $684.36 (match) · 448 history records