Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ad4…fa20 other 633 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,783 (-5%) realized −$1,734 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%118W / 500L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$7
14 days−$204
30 days−$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$534
other 24% −$704
sports 23% −$113
culture 8% −$128
tech 7% −$195
world 4% −$129
weather 3% −$41
finance 3% −$72
economics 1% −$25
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -1.2% -10.6% 58% 40% -9.7%
≤30d 103 -4.1% -13.2% 34% 23% -13.4%
≤90d 332 -8.7% -17.4% 17% 11% -14.3%
all 618 -6.4% -15.3% 19% 11% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 11% -14.6%
10% -23.4% 8% -22.7%
15% -30.8% 6% -30.2%
20% -37.6% 5% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$1,734
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses118 / 500
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions9
Markets (closed)618 / 633
History coverage228d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 618 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $75 $86 +$11 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $75 $71 −$4 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $75 $59 −$16 (-21%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 52¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 61¢ 52¢ $30 $26 −$5 (-16%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 51¢ 42¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Will DR Congo finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 45¢ 32¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 50¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $29 +$5 +18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $16 +$2 +10%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $46 +$9 +20%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 16 $48 −$2 -4%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $50 +$10 +19%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $38 +$10 +25%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 16 $108 −$2 -2%
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Jun 16 $130 −$62 -47%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $369 −$15 -4%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 16 $48 −$6 -13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $352 +$71 +20%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $603 −$91 -15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $302 +$69 +23%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $88 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $54 −$3 -5%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $23 −$1 -5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $238 +$10 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$12 -58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $42 −$4 -9%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $45 +$8 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $95 +$4 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $251 +$48 +19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $110 −$36 -33%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $64 +$10 +15%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $55 +$5 +9%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $42 −$23 -55%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 +$4 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $38 +$8 +22%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $32 +$8 +24%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $31 +$5 +15%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$14 +28%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $59 +$10 +16%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 13 $94 −$1 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $251 +$29 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $68 −$1 -2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $50 +$8 +16%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 11 $102 −$5 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $60 −$12 -20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $448 −$14 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $70 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) SELL DR Congo 98¢ $1 24m
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) SELL DR Congo 98¢ $33 24m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $14 25m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 45m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $18 45m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $16 1h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY DR Congo 83¢ $29 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $2 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 72¢ $31 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $30 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-2.5) AND Ghana vs. Pana BUY 17¢ $5 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 66¢ $55 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 42¢ $20 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 69¢ $25 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $46 22h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 97¢ $60 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $48 22h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 94¢ $47 22h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 75¢ $24 24h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 75¢ $6 24h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 75¢ $8 24h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $50 24h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 85¢ $106 24h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 86¢ $108 24h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 25h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 25h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 25h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 25h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL Yes 27¢ $28 25h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 51¢ $64 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.02 · official $401.29 · 2299 history records