Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ad3…1af6 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$10 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -9.1% -17.8% 50% 50% -9.8%
≤30d 12 -9.1% -17.8% 50% 50% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -9.1% -17.8% 50% 50% -9.8%
all 12 -9.1% -17.8% 50% 50% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 50% -9.8%
10% -25.7% 50% -18.4%
15% -32.8% 50% -26.3%
20% -39.4% 50% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$48 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 28 $61 −$61 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $61 −$61 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $121 +$79 +65%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $41 +$39 +97%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 27 $41 +$43 +105%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 26 $61 +$52 +86%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $61 +$46 +76%
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $39 +$24 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $41 2h
France vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $41 2h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $81 5h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $42 32h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 16¢ $41 32h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $41 32h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $121 35h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $61 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $61 2d
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) BUY PortlandFire 47¢ $40 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $41 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $61 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $61 2d
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $39 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $41 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.25 · official $157.26 (match) · 27 history records