Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ace…dc5f other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$68 (+6%) realized +$366 · open −$298
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$289
sports 11% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.7% -21.9% 33% 28% +11.9%
≤30d 18 -13.7% -21.9% 33% 28% +11.9%
≤90d 18 -13.7% -21.9% 33% 28% +11.9%
all 18 -13.7% -21.9% 33% 28% +11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 28% +11.9%
10% -29.4% 28% +1.2%
15% -36.2% 28% -8.6%
20% -42.5% 22% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$20 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$366
Unrealized−$298
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $298 $0 −$298 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 +$107 +52%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $100 −$99 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $70 +$65 +93%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +180%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $130 +$11 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 6 Winner Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$49 +474%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $301 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $204 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 43h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $70 46h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $130 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 1¢ $1 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 6 Winner SELL ONIC 55¢ $10 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 6 Winner BUY ONIC 56¢ $10 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.23 (match) · 29 history records